您是“聪明的钱”或“愚蠢的钱”?

业余投资者经常看不到专业基金经理认为他们不值得的费用。同时,专业基金经理倾向于将业余投资者视为“愚蠢的钱”。

What is “dumb money”? It is investors that invest when the markets are high and then sell when the markets are low.

这是人类肠道投资者倾向于投资的自然方式。人类的肠道倾向于使投资者势头投资者。在市场上升后,他们感到更加自信,并且在跌倒后更加害怕。

此外,“放牧”意味着投资者是否正在做自己认为大多数其他投资者正在做的事情,他们会更有信心。“让我们一起在底部卖出。”

投资者成为“愚蠢的钱”有多普遍?您能确定下图上图表上的情绪吗?请注意,将新投资净投资于底部的共同基金。它表明,绝大多数投资者(“牛群”)在顶部购买,然后在底部出售。

One of my favourite quotes from Nick Murray is: “A bear market is a period of time during which common stocks are returned to their rightful owners.” “Dumb money” is the investors that invested between 2004 to 2007, and then gave away their shares to “smart money” investors in 2009.

这有多重要?根据达尔巴尔(Dalbar)的说法,在过去20年中,普通投资者每年都会损失58%的回报,而低价和售价低。请注意,这是所有投资者的平均值。这意味着,一半的投资者每年损失了超过58%的回报率,一半的投资者损失了不到返回的58%。

How do you know whether you are “dumb money”? Here are some simple tests:

  1. 2009年,您在股票市场的投资少于2008年吗?
  2. Do you feel more comfortable when you hear that other investors are investing similar to you?
  3. 您认为您的直觉有助于确定何时更积极地投资,何时更保守?

If you answered yes to these questions, then I’m sorry to tell you this, but you are “dumb money”.

不过,不要感到难过。大多数投资者是牛群的一部分,并且有一些简单的解决方案。

What is the dumb money doing today? They are investing conservatively or for income:

  • 在共同基金中,274亿美元投资于平衡和收入资金,190亿美元用于债券资金,而2012年将141亿美元从股票基金中赎回。(IFIC)
  • 9% of net dollars invested into ETFs was invested in fixed income in 2012 (Bloomberg).

I always like to follow what most investors are doing. It is quite a reliable negative indicator. Since most of our clients are 100% in equities, I find it reassuring that the “herd” is going in a different direction.

What can you do to join the “smart money”? Here are a couple simple solutions:

  • Become a buy and hold investor. Don’t try to time the market. Choose your investment mix of quality investments and stick with it. It sounds boring, but it works for Warren Buffett.
  • 忽略你的肠子。专业投资者通常有一门学科来帮助他们忽略自己的直觉。您的石器时代人类的肠道经过遗传设计,可以在令人恐惧的情况下奔跑并在我们闻到食物时攻击,所有这些都完全没有投资。如果您认为自己的直觉可以帮助您进行投资,我会为您提供新闻 - 那是您的石器时代大脑没有意识到您的石器时代肠道对投资没有用。
  • Never reduce your exposure to the stock market after a crash. That is the Big Mistake in investing. If the market falls by more than 20%, your exposure to the stock market must be as high or higher than it was before the fall.

凭借对您的投资长期,耐心和纪律的信心,您可以加入“聪明的钱”。

Ed

与Ed进行计划

EdSelect

必威体育埃德·雷姆佩尔(Ed Rempel)帮助成千上万的加拿大人在财务上得到了安全。他是一名付费服务betway体育app官网的财务计划师,税务会计师,许多税收和投资策略的专家,以及受欢迎的热情博客作者。

埃德(Ed)对如何基于广泛的现实生活经验成功地在财务上取得成功有着独特的了解,并制定了近1,000个全面的个人财务计划。

“与ED的计划”经历与您的生活有关,而不仅仅是金钱。您的财务计划是您一生的全科医生。

获取您的计划!Become financially secure and free to live the life you want.

Leave a Comment