非理性的悲观主义？

“不可能进行对话。每个人都在说太多。”- 瑜伽士·贝拉（Yogi Berra）

1996年，美联储主席Alan Greenspancoined the term “irrational exuberance” to describe what he felt was unjustified speculation in the股市as the S&P 500 rose past 744. Now, 12 years later, the S&P500 has moved past 744 again, this time on the way down in what may be another case of irrational markets. Do we now have “irrational pessimism”?

在过去的几个月中，我们已经与成千上万的人进行了交谈，发现现在每个人的看法都一致。“在2009年会变得更糟”，“康复将需要3 - 5年甚至10年或更长时间”，“这是自大萧条以来最糟糕的情况”。世界末日场景也很常见。悲观无处不在！

The argument that this pessimism is justified is everywhere in the news. Here are the reasons why it may be “irrational pessimism”.

但是，当您看经济时，所有的悲观主义都很难理解。约翰·肯尼迪（John F. Kennedy）的顾问创建了“苦难指数”，以评估经济危机的痛苦。它只是增加了失业率和通货膨胀。通过这种措施，我们现在仅为7.6％，当时22％和19.9％的衰退距离70和80年代的衰退距离不远。

实际上，尽管有很多坏消息，但根据所有主要经济统计数据，美国经济的表现要比其他这些衰退更好：

Recession2008-91981 - 82年1973-75

真正的GDP -1.1％-2.7％-3.1％

Industrial production -6.1% -9.9% -13%

Unemployment 7.6% 10.8% 9.0%

通货膨胀-.1% 14.6% 12.2%

30-year mortgage 5.2% 18.5% 10.0%

Misery index 7.6% 22.0% 19.9%

S＆P500 -45-50％-13％-43％

TSX -40-45％-39％-35％

* New York Post

当然，这种经济衰退还没有结束并且可能会加深，但是这些统计数据都不会像以前的衰退那样糟糕。1月15日平均有55个预报员Wall Street Journalsurvey expect real GDP to eventually reach only -2.1%. Industrial production appears to have bottomed in September 2008. The news is full of stories of massive lay-offs, but unemployment is only expected to rise to 8.9%.

The main driver of the economy is still consumer spending, which rose 3.6% in 2008. It fell sharply in the last quarter, but rebounding early in 2009. Other than the last quarter of 2008, consumers held up fine with high oil prices (though it did hurt car sales), falling house prices, and tightened credit markets.

简而言之，经济正处于普通衰退中。经济需要停下来清除过度建造。建造了太多的房屋，因此新建筑放慢了速度以清除这些房屋。目前的汽车生产水平将需要27年才能替换所有汽车，因此需求将恢复。经济不是问题。

So, how do you explain the stock market having its worst year in history (other than during the 1930s)? The crash is more surprising, since there are no good alternatives. In 1982, not only was the economy worse than now, you could buy a GIC at 19 7/8%, and yet the stock market still fell less than today and recovered in one year.

There are real reasons why the stock market crash has been larger:

• It was exaggerated by the popping of 4 bubbles at once – real estate, oil/commodities, China (BRIC countries) and a debt/financial bubble. Four more cases of irrational exuberance! Not surprisingly, the market problems have been mainly in the same 4 sectors.
• 银行危机造成了消费者的恐惧，使获得信誉变得更加困难，并将整个财务指数下降了80％。
• 经济衰退是全球的（如1973 - 74年）。

这些原因是否证明当前的悲观主义是合理的？

• 除了房地产外，这四个泡沫部门可能已经完全放气了，而且可能更多的是，它的房地产要多一点，尤其是在美国
• The US financial index is down 80%, so there is not much more room to fall. This despite the worst banks, Citibank and Bank of America, both making profits again in 2009.

恐惧和不断的坏消息现在失控了吗？每个人都想知道经济能够得到多么糟糕，何时会恢复，但是经济不是问题。每个人都想知道股票市场将会有多低，而数万亿美元则以现金坐在场外等待合适的时间跳回去。媒体与大萧条的比较充满了荒谬的比较。

“非理性的悲观主义”是否成为最新的泡沫？是的。就像最后4个气泡一样，您永远无法预测非理性气泡会走多远，但它们最终都会弹出。这次，它需要“融化”，而不是“融化”。

换句话说，这是一个很好的购买机会。几乎绝对是您一生中最好的购买机会。股票正在销售。他们已经从过去的100％下降中恢复过来，并将从该下降中恢复过来。

Your risk today is not about a further decline. Your risk today is missing the inevitable recovery.

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