害怕虚假因素是有利的 - 我（简短答案）

经过必威体育 | August 26, 2011 |

“比预测未来更重要的是了解市场认为会发生什么。”- 埃里克·布什尔（Eric Bushell）

您是否注意到最近几乎每天都有消息是关于担心新事物的消息not发生？

We have actually had more concerned calls than in 2008. The constant negative news makes it hard for most people to sort out the actual seriousness of the situation.

下一篇文章是害怕虚假因素是有利的 - ii（长答案）

这里有一个简短的答案to our opinion of what is really going on.

最近的市场担忧清单：

First there was the issue of increasing the US debt ceiling, the issues in negotiating it, the downgrade of their credit rating, whether the US is able to pay all its debts and the list of deficits (budget, trade, employment, social security, etc.). Then we went through a series of European countries (Greece, then Spain, then Italy, then France), whether they could pay their debts and whether the European Union will survive. Then came the fear of the “double-dip recession”.

现在，永久的悲观主义者认为他们终于正确了。有永久的黄金虫（“美元将失去其价值。唯一的安全投资是黄金或白银。”），不喜欢美国人的人（与“美国已经完成！”一起说），而永久的悲观”Perma-Bears”（“从数学上来说，美国不可能偿还债务”，我们将获得放气或过度充气，或者两者兼而有之，有政府的阴谋，我们已经用完了石油等）。

哦，天哪，我们都注定要失败吗？？？

具体来说，投资安全吗？

我们的意见：这些事情实际上都不会发生。

We have been meeting with a series of our fund managers and pouring over their commentary to help us understand what is really going on. Some have connections to the top finance and government decision-makers and all are very knowledgeable and experienced about the markets. Based on insights from our fund managers and a lot of other reading, here is our opinion about what is really happening.

简短的答案

This is nothing like 2008.The underlying fundamentals are sound. The US has a huge economy with huge powers to collect tax and is easily able to pay its bills. Europeans have a deep drive to maintain the Euro. They are very creative and will support all the countries in the European Union.

市场仅一年一度下降约10％。两周前，我们在星期一和星期三下降了4％以上，但在星期二和周四的增长4％。市场很困惑。

2。美国和欧洲的问题主要是政治问题，而不是财务问题。市场是非理性的，受到谣言和恐惧的灌输，我们认为这都不会发生。

3。The companies in the stock market are in great shape.似乎每个人似乎都忘记了我们没有投资于经济或政府 - 我们正在投资公司。几十年来，公司都没有经济上的声音。最大的公司的利润为历史最高的（每股100.07美元）。股票非常便宜（11.52 p/e），它们有大量现金。

对于长期投资者而言，这是巨大的购买机会 - 过于悲观的市场结合了非常强大的公司基础。“当别人贪婪和贪婪时，当别人恐惧时要害怕。”²

The current price of stocks is based on what most investors think will happen. There is a buying opportunity when the market is too fearful of things we are confident will not happen.

股票市场的长期增长将继续奖励那些有信仰和耐心的人。

记住4 fs：害怕假因素是有利的。